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Prediction for CME (2025-08-17T10:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-17T10:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40624/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The source is likely an eruption from Active Region 14179 (S17W15) starting around 2025-08-17T09:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 284/304, and STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193 from the eruption site, and a clear deflection to the southeast can be observed. There is a coronal hole northeast of the eruption site which likely accounts for this deflection. Additionally, brightening can be observed from Active Region 14180 around 2025-08-17T09:15Z but it is unclear if this is related to the observed CME or not.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-20T03:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-08-17T15:08Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 690
Longitude (deg): 9E
Latitude (deg): 16S
Half-angular width (deg): 21

Notes: Bulk of CME likely to pass below
Space weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton

Lead Time: 45.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-08-18T06:00Z

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